Wisdom of the Crowds

            My experiment was to determine what people think the average temperature has been this winter, since people have been complaining about the cold for a very long time. According to Accuweather.com, the average high temperature for January 2014 in Annville was 31.7 degrees.

            I posted a status on Facebook asking people what they thought the average temperature was, and after I received fifteen responses I told them what it was. After deleting the highest and lowest (which were 15 and 36), I calculated an average of 23.5 degrees. It is not too close to the actual number, but that is most likely because it is a smaller number and harder to average to the correct one.

            It is interesting how the theory of “the wisdom of the crowds” in almost every circumstance. It slightly worked with my experiment. I think most people guessed a colder temperature, like in the 20s, because it has been such a harsh winter and everyone is tired of the cold. I also found it interesting that it was mostly my middle-aged Facebook friends who responded to the survey, as opposed to friends my age. I’m not sure if that has any reason for the responses that I received. I have noticed that older users tend to answer polls like this on Facebook, especially relatives, because they are trying to help me out. You would think that college students would empathize with me trying to complete a project and respond to the poll, but I only had a handful respond.